Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 58.722521 68.641209 79.420846 91.968064 106.131206 121.582619 139.672853
2024-12-15 44.297455 57.760512 73.711440 93.833878 118.356609 147.078188 183.052305
2024-12-22 32.470455 46.383543 64.077099 87.876318 118.654512 156.688569 206.759685
2024-12-29 27.433759 42.205058 62.085965 90.203904 128.259504 177.219413 244.088580
2025-01-05 22.704258 37.459688 58.395920 89.395234 133.097608 191.357278 273.516880
2025-01-12 20.789533 36.350738 59.407501 94.832282 146.418388 217.130979 319.356784
2025-01-19 16.674640 31.188987 53.790713 89.996978 144.657703 221.915843 336.659855
2025-01-26 15.063386 29.754948 53.560887 92.971566 154.161740 242.708497 376.947306
2025-02-02 14.286957 29.588804 55.245553 98.922353 168.350549 270.803793 428.779670
2025-02-09 13.006270 28.324346 54.948346 101.605954 177.589763 291.978216 471.411970
2025-02-16 11.702413 26.809120 54.025379 103.105929 184.947742 310.560312 510.881227
2025-02-23 10.300063 24.879651 52.140457 102.761496 189.216057 324.508315 543.846820
2025-03-02 9.041799 23.198024 50.798490 103.745682 196.584375 344.973500 589.870500
2025-03-09 7.981869 21.771467 49.809849 105.357456 205.296165 368.344076 642.089417
2025-03-16 6.236012 18.439686 44.645878 98.749306 199.310601 367.640944 656.339681
2025-03-23 5.620577 17.616777 44.398073 101.310675 209.505892 393.833671 714.589402
2025-03-30 4.806273 16.112441 42.496530 100.419108 213.334513 409.483916 756.290019
2025-04-06 4.602929 16.166564 43.982603 106.408407 230.169211 447.962357 837.118507
2025-04-13 3.675648 13.997790 40.153262 101.082209 225.334240 448.756738 854.996213
2025-04-20 3.388041 13.611733 40.411891 104.359301 237.134190 479.158686 924.073023
2025-04-27 3.299271 13.818440 42.123429 110.910379 255.694678 522.336676 1016.558304
2025-05-04 3.032076 13.392690 42.208116 113.862662 267.265463 553.399812 1089.167171
2025-05-11 2.732926 12.783623 41.740059 115.512286 276.282534 580.161414 1155.180591